El Niño Threatens More Than 162 Million Children Across Eastern and Southern Africa, UNICEF Warns.
NAIROBI:
More than 162 million children—over two-thirds of all children living in Eastern and Southern Africa—are at risk from the strengthening 2026/2027 El Niño phenomenon, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) has warned, calling for urgent international action before the worst impacts of the climate event are felt.
UNICEF said intensifying drought, extreme heat and flooding could severely affect children’s access to nutritious food, healthcare, safe drinking water and sanitation, education and protection from violence and exploitation.
The agency said weather forecasts have created a narrow but critical opportunity for governments, humanitarian organizations and donors to take anticipatory measures before climate-related shocks reach their peak.
«“The threat from El Niño is growing, and the risks for children are already clear,” said Etleva Kadilli, UNICEF Regional Director for Eastern and Southern Africa.»
According to UNICEF, children across the region are already experiencing food and water insecurity, overstretched health services and interruptions to education. Additional climate shocks could place further pressure on families and essential public services, potentially pushing vulnerable communities and the systems supporting them to breaking point.
13 Countries Facing Overlapping Risks
UNICEF assessments have identified urgent and overlapping risks in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
The potential impacts vary from country to country, but drought, flooding, extreme temperatures, food insecurity, disease outbreaks and displacement are expected to create multiple and interconnected threats to children.
In Somalia, UNICEF estimates that flooding could directly affect up to 2.5 million people under the most severe scenario mapping. Large-scale flooding could lead to displacement while disrupting children’s access to food, healthcare, safe water and education.
In Ethiopia, tens of thousands of children are expected to be affected, particularly in areas already experiencing severe food insecurity and high levels of vulnerability.
In South Sudan, drought, extreme heat and localized flooding could further worsen food insecurity and malnutrition, while increasing the risk of disease outbreaks. UNICEF warned that these pressures could also compound existing famine risks and contribute to further large-scale displacement.
UNICEF Calls for Immediate Investment
Despite the predictable nature of many of these risks, UNICEF said less than one per cent of international humanitarian assistance is currently available for anticipatory action.
Anticipatory action involves using forecasts and early-warning information to deliver assistance before a disaster reaches its most destructive stage. UNICEF said such early intervention can save lives, reduce humanitarian needs and help protect development gains made over many years.
The agency is calling for immediate investment in several critical areas.
Expanding Nutrition Services
UNICEF is urging governments and humanitarian partners to pre-position life-saving nutrition supplies and expand early screening and treatment for children facing malnutrition.
Early intervention is particularly important in communities already experiencing food insecurity, where drought and flooding can rapidly reduce access to food and increase malnutrition among children.
Strengthening Health and WASH Systems
Health systems in vulnerable areas need to be reinforced ahead of potential outbreaks and increased demand for services.
UNICEF is calling for stronger disease surveillance, essential vaccination campaigns and continued access to basic healthcare. It is also urging investment in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) systems to ensure communities have access to safe water and sanitation, particularly during droughts and floods when the risk of waterborne diseases can increase.
Preventing Disruption to Education
Climate-related emergencies can force children out of school, sometimes for prolonged periods.
UNICEF is calling for school infrastructure to be strengthened before extreme weather strikes and for authorities to prepare safe alternative learning spaces so that children can continue their education even when schools are damaged or communities are displaced.
Protecting Children From Violence and Exploitation
Climate emergencies can increase children’s vulnerability to violence, exploitation, family separation and gender-based violence.
UNICEF is urging partners to expand psychosocial support, family tracing and reunification services and measures aimed at preventing violence and exploitation, including gender-based violence.
Expanding Shock-Responsive Social Protection
The agency is also calling for stronger links between early-warning systems and social protection programmes.
Anticipatory cash assistance and other social protection measures can provide vulnerable families with resources before a crisis becomes severe. UNICEF said strengthening government-led social protection systems would also improve countries’ ability to respond to future climate-related shocks.
UNICEF Seeks $173 Million for Anticipatory and Life-Saving Assistance
UNICEF said it urgently requires US$173 million within its existing 2026 Humanitarian Action for Children (HAC) requirements to provide anticipatory and life-saving assistance to children and families across the 13 priority countries.
The agency stressed that funding must be available early and remain flexible so that resources can be deployed before the impacts of El Niño intensify.
UNICEF said acting on forecasts rather than waiting for visible signs of a humanitarian crisis can significantly reduce both human suffering and future recovery costs.
According to the agency, every US$1 invested in disaster risk reduction can save up to US$15 in future recovery costs.
‘The Choice Is Whether the World Responds Now’
UNICEF warned that the region is approaching a critical period in which early decisions could determine how severely children and families are affected.
“We know what is coming, which children are most at risk and how to protect them,” Kadilli said. “The choice is whether the world responds now, or waits until the crisis escalates, and children pay an even greater price.”
The agency is therefore urging governments, donors and humanitarian partners to use the available forecasts to act immediately, arguing that early investment in nutrition, health, water and sanitation, education, child protection and social protection can prevent a predictable climate shock from developing into a larger humanitarian crisis.
With more than two-thirds of children in Eastern and Southern Africa living in areas exposed to El Niño impacts, UNICEF says the window for preventive action is open—but it is rapidly narrowing.
